to combat oversupply and low prices. In October, the ban was replaced
with a quota system allowing up to 96,600 tonnes of exports per year in
percent of the world's cobalt, those decisions have sent ripples through
every downstream market.¹
detail. The Democratic Republic of Congo — producer of approximately
to address oversupply and low prices.¹
of contained cobalt for the remainder of 2025, and up to 96,600 tonnes
per year in 2026 and 2027, inclusive of 9,600 tonnes reserved for the
country's national strategic reserves.¹ The quotas were structured to
rebalance a market that had seen prices drop below production costs for
many operators, particularly smaller artisanal-mining operations in
Congo's Katanga province.
supply restriction to defend price levels when producers face cost
pressure. The quotas are a test of whether Congo can exert OPEC-like
influence over a single critical-minerals market when its share of
global production is large enough to move prices.
Cobalt prices in 2024 averaged well below historical norms, with U.S.
spot cathode cobalt at US$16.77 per pound and the LME cash price at
produces a significant share of national output and employs large
numbers of workers — was increasingly unprofitable. Social and political
pressure to support producers mounted through late 2024, and the
February 2025 ban was the federal government's response.
leach (HPAL) facilities ramped to recover cobalt alongside their primary
nickel output. Indonesian cobalt is a by-product of nickel operations,
which means it enters the market regardless of cobalt-price economics —
exactly the kind of supply dynamic that pressures cobalt pricing.²
now represents 14 percent of global output. The growth pattern is
continuing, and unless Indonesian nickel production slows or shifts to
processing routes that do not recover cobalt, Indonesian supply will
continue to dilute Congo's market leverage.¹
prices as long as Indonesian supply growth does not exceed demand
growth. If Indonesian HPAL capacity continues to scale at current pace,
the Congolese quota would need to be tightened progressively to maintain
price support — a politically awkward proposition for a government
dependent on cobalt export revenue.
planning challenge. Locking in long-term supply from either source is
complicated by political risk (Congolese stability) and industrial risk
shifting battery chemistry toward lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP), which
eliminates cobalt entirely, for lower-range vehicle segments while
retaining nickel-cobalt-manganese (NMC) chemistries for high-performance
models.
Average 2025 prices tell the story of the quota system's impact. U.S.
spot cathode cobalt lifted from US$16.77 per pound in 2024 to US$21 per
pound estimated for 2025, and LME cash from US$11.84 to US$15.¹ Both are
below the pre-2023 levels but significantly above the oversupplied 2024
trough. The quota system succeeded in defending a price floor; it did
not restore the prices of the early 2020s.
over five years for the National Defense Stockpile. The solicitation was
cancelled before year-end.¹ The cancellation likely reflected the
changing market conditions and the Pentagon's assessment that other
sourcing avenues would suffice — but it signals that defence-related
cobalt procurement remains an active file even if this particular
solicitation did not proceed.
by-product. Libra Energy Materials (CSE: LIBR), the critical-minerals
vehicle that closed the 2025 acquisition of Brion Minerals from Frontera
cobalt-nickel project in Brazil alongside a larger lithium and graphite
portfolio spanning 30,706 hectares, giving the country a secondary
exposure to the broader cobalt-supply-chain diversification story.⁴ That
exposure is strategically interesting but currently very small relative
to the Congolese and Indonesian primary output that continues to
dominate the shape and direction of the global cobalt market for the
foreseeable future.
their cobalt exposure. Three responses are visible. First, continued
shift toward LFP chemistry for entry-level and commercial-vehicle
segments. Second, new investment in cobalt recycling from end-of-life
batteries, which has been accelerating since the Chinese export controls
on related critical minerals raised general supply-chain concerns.
contracts with Australian, Canadian, Madagascan and Russian operations.
superalloys for aircraft gas-turbine engines is worth separate mention.¹
demand is. Superalloy consumption continues regardless of cobalt price,
and the defence-and-aerospace primacy of this segment means cobalt will
retain strategic-mineral status even if battery demand softens further.
as Indonesian supply continues to grow and battery-chemistry
diversification reduces cobalt demand per vehicle. If the quotas hold,
prices likely stabilise in the US$15-25 per pound range. If Congo
loosens enforcement, prices slip back. If Indonesia slows supply growth,
prices rise. Meanwhile, U.S. strategic-stockpile policy remains acti